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»»»  D&B Country Risk Indicators for 3 Baltic countries at the December 2012.

ESTONIA
DB2d - This "DB" Rating Indicates: Low risk Low degree of uncertainty associated with expected returns. However, country-wide factors may result in higher volatility of returns at a future date. Trend: Deteriorating The country's overall risk profile is deteriorating owing to adverse political, commercial, economic and/or external developments.

LATVIA
DB4a - This "DB" Rating Indicates: Moderate risk Significant uncertainty over expected returns. Risk-averse customers are advised to protect against potential losses. Trend: Stable The country's overall risk profile has not changed appreciably, even though some minor changes to its political, commercial, economic and/or external risk environment may have occurred.

LITHUANIA
DB3c - This "DB" Rating Indicates: Slight risk Enough uncertainty over expected returns to warrant close monitoring of country risk. Customers should actively manage their risk exposures. Trend: Stable The country's overall risk profile has not changed appreciably, even though some minor changes to its political, commercial, economic and/or external risk environment may have occurred.

The 'DB' risk indicator provides a comparative, cross-border assessment of the risk of doing business in a country and encapsulates the risk that country-wide factors pose to the predictability of export payments and investment returns over a two year time horizon. The 'DB' risk indicator is a composite index of four over-arching country risk categories:

  • Political risk - internal and external security situation, policy competency and consistency, and other such factors that determine whether a country fosters an enabling business environment;
  • Commercial risk - the sanctity of contract, judicial competence, regulatory transparency, degree of systemic corruption, and other such factors that determine whether the business environment facilitates the conduct of commercial transactions;
  • External risk - the current account balance, capital flows, FX reserves, size of external debt and all such factors that determine whether a country can generate enough FX to meet its trade and foreign investment liabilities;
  • Macroeconomic risk - the inflation rate, government balance, money supply growth and all such macroeconomic factors that determine whether a country is able to deliver sustainable economic growth to provide further expansion in business opportunities. The DB risk indicator is divided into seven bands, ranging from DB1 through DB7. Each band is subdivided into quartiles (ad), with an 'a' designation representing slightly less risk than a 'b' designation and so on. Only the DB7 indicator is not divided into quartiles.

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